A. S. SAYIYAN, PhD in Historical Sciences, Research Fellow, CRSS, INSS, NDRU, MOD, RA, Research Fellow, Institute of History, NAS, RA
SUMMARY
In 2011, the Arab Spring in Syria entailed on the creation of the self-proclaimed Kurdish autonomy of Rojava, in which the main ruling party is the PKK-established Democratic Union Party, which caused a transformation of Turkey’s Kurdish policy. Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian conflict grew more and more active. However, until 2016, Erdogan avoided direct intervention, nevertheless using Islamist organizations sponsored by him against the Kurds. Anyhow, in 2015, Moscow intervened in the Syrian conflict, and Turkey carried out three invasions of Syria from 2016 to 2019, occupying territories of Northern Syria and dividing Rojava into two parts.
Nonetheless, Erdogan failed to achieve his main goal of destroying Rojava, whose territory was invaded by the Syrian government and Russian troops, in addition, the PKK presence in the Turkish parliament, as well as local authorities increased on account of the 2023-2024 election results. Erdogan then resorted to violence under far-fetched pretexts, imprisoning Kurdish MPs and mayors, this causing even greater complications both domestically and in relations with Western countries and international organizations.
In this regard, in order to gain time Erdogan pretended to make concessions. As a matter of fact, the Islamist organizations sponsored by him, launched a Turkish army-supported offensive in Syria on November 27 and occupied the entire territory of the country, excluding Rojava, on December 8.
At this point, the coming to power of pro-Turkish forces in Syria gives Erdogan the opportunity to seize the Kurdish autonomy and suppress the Kurdish liberation movement through joint actions of Turkish and Syrian forces. Since the US and Israel are against the destruction of Rojava, Erdogan is trying to take advantage of the US involvement in the deepening economic warfare with China and the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, and as of Israel – in the conflict with Iran and the Hamas group, and to seize Rojava as quickly as possible, while leading states and international organizations do not put up significant resistance.